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利率雙軌制會成爲歐洲央行的貨幣政策選項嗎?

http://finance.sina.com   2020年01月14日 15:29   北京新浪網

  來源:市川新田三丁目 

  譯者  王爲

  文中黑字部分爲原文,藍字部分爲譯文,紅字部分爲譯者註釋或補充說明

  European Central Bank has one item left in its toolkit: dual rates

  by Eric Lonergan

  There is a widespread assumption that the European Central Bank — like other major central banks — has reached the limits of monetary policy, and that the best we can hope for with Christine Lagarde’s reign is political astuteness in cajoling reluctant politicians to embrace a fiscal stimulus.

  人們普遍認爲,像其他幾大央行一樣,歐洲央行也在貨幣政策方面達到了極限,能指望的最多不過是拉扎德領導下的歐洲央行能展現出敏感的政治嗅覺,去誘使不情不願的政治家們欣然接受財政刺激的做法。

  This is not the case.

  但實際情況卻並非如此。

  As Ms Lagarde prepares to launch a strategic review of the ECB’s policies and objectives, she has a final item left in the toolkit: dual interest rates.

  當拉扎德女士準備對歐洲央行的政策和目標進行策略審議之時,在她的政策工具箱還躺着另一個選項:利率雙軌制

  In practice, this entails the central bank targeting different interest rates for loans and deposits. Such loans can also be restricted to specific sectors, such as renewable energy. The policy would be more effective than quantitative easing, forward guidance or negative interest rates. It would provide a powerful monetary stimulus and could be used to turbo-charge Europe’s Green Deal.

  利率雙軌制實際上是讓央行鍼對貸款和存款分別設置不同的利率水平。這些貸款的用途也可以被限制於某些特定的行業板塊中,比如可再生能源行業。利率雙軌制應比量化寬鬆、前瞻性指引或負利率等政策做法更有效,應會帶來強有力的貨幣政策刺激,並有可能被用於促進“歐洲綠色協議”的實施。

  The effects of dual interest rates are easiest to understand in contrast to standard policy. Typically, when a central bank reduces interest rates we expect this to boost spending in the economy through three basic effects:

  與常規的貨幣政策相比,利率雙軌制的政策效果是顯而易見的。通常,當一家央行降息的時候,我們會寄希望於降息會在三個方面刺激消費的增長:

  1.Interest rates fall for households with mortgages; 

  借了按揭貸款的家庭所負擔的利率水平出現下降;

  2.asset prices rise, making people feel wealthier; and 

  資產價格上漲,使人有一種財富增加了的感覺;

  3.the cost of borrowing for companies falls, which should boost investment spending.

  企業借債成本下降,因而促進投資的增長。

  But serious problems emerge when interest rates are very low or negative. The interest income which savers receive collapses — weighing on spending — and bank profitability is damaged, causing many unintended consequences.

  但是當利率水平非常低或處於負利率狀態時,一些嚴重的問題會浮現出來。存款方所獲得的利息收入出現崩潰式減少,因而加大了對開支的壓力,商業銀行的盈利能力遭到削弱,並導致很多意想不到的後果。

  The application of dual interest rates

  利率雙軌制的實施

  What would happen if the central bank raised the interest rate on deposits, and cut the interest rate on loans? Both savers and borrowers benefit. History tells us that such an approach will always raise demand.

  如果央行在提升存款利率的同時降低貸款利率的水平會發生什麼?存款方和借款方均受益了,歷史經驗告訴我們這種做法一旦出臺總是會促進需求。

  The strongest recent evidence is from the Chinese banking system in the 1980s and early 1990s (see the differential movements in figure 2, prior to more parallel shifts in recent years).

  最近的也是最鮮明的例子來自於中國銀行體系在1980年代和1990年代初所發生的情況,見下圖2

  Interest rates on deposits and loans were set independently. When stimulus was required, interest rates on loans could be reduced by more than interest on deposits. In an economy with fiat money, nominal spending can always be stimulated.

  圖2顯示,當時中國的存款和貸款利率被設置在不同的水平上。當需要加大刺激力度的時候,貸款利率的調降幅度會大於存款利率的降幅。在一個採用法定貨幣的經濟體中,如果出現上述情況,那麼名義上的開支總量會加速增長。

  Can such a policy work with a private banking system and an independent central bank? Many commentators seem unaware that in his final act as president, Mario Draghi showed precisely how it is done.

  這樣的政策在一個由私營的商業銀行加獨立的中央銀行組成的銀行體系中會奏效嗎?很多評論家似乎並不瞭解的情況是,歐洲央行前任總裁德拉吉在其任期的最後日子裏已經精準地展示出利率雙軌制是如何實行的。

  For some time now the ECB has had a method of independently affecting lending rates. Its targeted longer-term refinancing operation — or TLTRO — allows the central bank to lend to commercial banks at negative interest rates, on condition that they extend new loans to the private sector. TLTROs also exclude lending to unproductive parts of the economy, such as mortgages.

  在經過了一段時間後的今天,歐洲央行發展出了一套做法可以獨立地影響借款利率的水平。該行可以通過“定向長期再融資操作”TLTRO以負利率的水平貸款給商業銀行,前提是商業銀行必須將獲得貸款資金轉貸給私營企業。歐洲央行還規定“定向長期再融資操作”項下的資金不得用於非生產性用途,比如用於按揭貸款。

  Mr Draghi’s final innovation was to introduce “tiered reserves”. This allows the central bank to set the rate of interest on the deposits that banks hold with the central bank independently of the policy rate which determines money market rates.

  德拉吉在任期間最後一項創舉是引進了“分層存款準備金”制度。該制度可以讓中央銀行在決定了貨幣市場利率水平高低的政策性利率之外,爲商業銀行存放在央行的準備金存款另行設定單獨的利率水平。

  In one subtle gesture, the ECB in effect reduced the interest rate at which banks can fund lending to the economy and raised the average interest rate that banks receive on their deposits. This is a policy of dual interest rates.

  歐洲央行以一種微妙的姿態實質性地降低了商業銀行向實體經濟提供貸款的資金成本並提升了商業銀行在央行存款的利率。這就是利率雙軌制政策的實質。

  Dual interest rates in the future

  未來的利率雙軌制

  Let us consider how this policy could be extended. If Ms Lagarde needs to provide further stimulus to the eurozone due to inflation persistently undershooting the ECB’s close to 2 per cent target, she could increase the term of TLTROs to five or 10 years, at a steeply negative interest rate, say minus 1 per cent. At the same time, the bank could increase the interest rate on deposits through tiering.

  先來討論一下該政策如何才能推行下去。如果拉扎德因歐元區的通脹增速持續低於歐洲央行設定的2%目標值而需要進一步刺激歐元區的經濟,她可能會將“定向長期再融資操作”項下的貸款期限擴大至5到10年期,貸款利率的水平進入更深的負利率區間,比如-1%,同時該行還可以通過“存款分層”的方式提升存款利率的水平。

  Progress could also be made on how to target this TLTRO funding. Currently, the only requirement for banks to access the programme is that they use it to extend new loans, excluding mortgages. Ms Lagarde has expressed a desire to make ECB policy consistent with the eurozone policy on climate change.

  定向長期再融資操作項下融資的用途也應予以明確。當前商業銀行獲得“定向長期再融資操作”項下資金的唯一前提條件是將該筆資金用於新發放按揭貸款用途之外的貸款。拉扎德曾表示希望讓歐洲央行的貨幣政策與歐元區在氣候變化方面的政策步調一致。

  TLTROs at negative interest rates should be available only to banks that are directly using the funds to finance sustainable energy investments. In one relatively simple policy move, the supposed impotence of monetary policy becomes an enhanced Green Deal.

  “定向長期再融資操作”項下的負利率貸款應只用於爲可持續的能源投資項目提供融資。只經過一個相對比較簡單的政策變化,貨幣政策的“無能爲力”就會轉變成一個加強版的綠色協議。

  It came as little surprise that the take-up of the recent programme was muted. For example, the current three-year TLTROs at minus 0.5 per cent are only a marginal improvement on available market-based funding. But a 10-year loan at minus 1 per cent or minus 2 per cent would be game-changing.

  近期“定向長期再融資操作”之所以接受度不高是可以理解的。舉個例子,當前三年期“定向長期再融資操作”的融資利率水平爲-0.5%,相對於市場融資利率的水平來講只是略有改善而已,但如果十年期“定向長期再融資操作”的融資利率水平是-1%或-2%,就會產生重大影響。

  Dual interest rates and sustainable TLTROs should be at the heart of Ms Lagarde’s review. Monetary policy is very far from running its course. There is scope for a major shift in its power. Therein lies the challenge for the bank’s new president. She has promised openness and transparency. Being explicit about the effects, and powers, of this policy would be a great manner in which to begin.

  利率雙軌制和可持續的“定向長期再融資操作”應該是拉扎德政策審議的重點。貨幣政策遠非順其自然那麼簡單,失之毫釐往往謬以千里。這是擺在歐洲央行新總裁面前的挑戰,拉扎德曾承諾要讓政策更具開放性和透明性。講清楚這一政策的效果方才是一個好的開端。

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